Iberian unsettled weather

[danP]

There's been some very unsettled weather over the Iberian peninsula over the last few days, with a number of tornadoes reported in the southern province of Andalucia. A number of area have seen flash flooding resulting in damage to roads and buildings.

There doesn't look to be any let up in the next few days, if anything the stormy weather remains until the weekend with the upper trough lifting potentially early next week.

Long range is really all over the place, some models suggesting more unsettled weather returning, some show a ridge building bringing in calm weather and more typical temperatures.

   

[maritimesbob]

After all this rain and unseasonable cool weather, there are hints that toward the end of this month that warmer and more settled conditions return for Iberia.

AEMET seasonal forecast has April and May as above average temperatures - which seems to be a common theme for most of the Mediterranean these these days.

[wxmanjerry]

The weird and unseasonal blocking pattern continues with the typically northwestern European pattern being pushed south across the western Mediterranean. Even as far as southern Morocco and the Canaries has seen below average temperatures and a lot of rain.

A lot of Spanish locations have smashed their wettest month since records began. Bad news for tourists, but of course it's great news for the locals after years of drought, unfortunately this has caused some devastating flooding too.

[sumac]

I concurr! I live in Albacete in east Spain. We did not get the rain totals in March some area got. Andalucia was hard hit, some reports say the average winter rainfall amount was received in the first number of days in March!

[maritimesbob]

We've got a repeat scenario again, well almost the same. A blocking high over northwestern Europe is pushing waves of instability across the Iberian penilsula bringing heavy downpours and below normal temperatures. Just a quick look at some of the models and there is an upper level low that parks itself over northern Spain / Portugal in the medium range with the trough likely bringing unsettled weather through central and eastern Iberia, and up into southern France. Likely a bit more settled on the southern coast and generally closer to normal temperatures there.

Just for fun as it's 216hrs out, but the GFS has this upper level low drifting into the western Med as a result, some serious precipitation is being modeled across Italy, but as I said, it's a long way out and just one model run.