Crap, Zelia has really intensified, considerably more than the projected models expected. It's now a category 5 cyclone.
Look at those sea surface temperatures adding fuel to the fire!! 32C
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 13/02/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 18U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (163 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
Central Pressure: 928 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT
![[Image: biggrin.png]](https://euroweather.org/forums/images/smilies/biggrin.png)
0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/1800: 19.4S 118.1E: 025 (040): 115 (215): 923
+12: 14/0000: 19.6S 118.0E: 030 (055): 115 (215): 923
+18: 14/0600: 20.1S 118.0E: 045 (085): 120 (220): 919
+24: 14/1200: 20.7S 118.1E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 939
+36: 15/0000: 22.3S 117.8E: 080 (150): 045 (085): 986
+48: 15/1200: 24.1S 117.2E: 095 (180): 030 (055): 996
+60: 16/0000: 25.5S 116.5E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 994
+72: 16/1200: 26.4S 116.6E: 120 (220): 025 (045): 996
+96: 17/1200: : : :
+120: 18/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia did not complete an eye wall replacement cycle
that was indicated earlier in the day, and the inner eye wall has since
consolidated further. Zelia remains slow moving off the Pilbara coast north of
Port Hedland.
Position based on animated satellite and Port Hedland radar imagery with very
good confidence. Intensity set at 110kn, consistent with Dvorak analysis and
objective aids. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=6.5 based on DT with eye pattern with W
surround and an OW eye (+0.5 adjustment). Adjusted MET is 5.5 based on D+ 24h
trend and PAT +0.5 adjustment. Objective estimates (at 1130 UTC unless
otherwise stated): CIMSS SATCON 110kn at 0730UTC, ADT 129 kn, AIDT 119 kn,
DPRINT 124 kn, DMINT 129 kn at 1036 UTC (all 1-minute mean).
The environment continues to be very favourable for intensification. CIMSS wind
shear is 13kn (06:00 UTC) with strong upper dual outflow channels, and expected
to become stronger on the southern side associated with an approaching upper
trough. Sea surface temperatures are abnormally warm at 32C. There is some
drier air in the mid-levels to the west and north of Zelia, though it is
unlikely to impact the core and is not expected to limit intensification before
landfall. Zelia is forecast to intensify to 120 knots before landfall during
Friday afternoon or evening.
The track should be slow moving in the next 6-12 hours as Zelia is currently
located in a col with mid-level anticyclones to the east and west, and an upper
trough passing to the south, providing balanced steering influences. During
Friday morning weakening of the anticyclone to the west, will allow Zelia to be
steered southwards to landfall. Zelia is forecast to weaken at a standard rate
as it moves inland, and should drop below tropical cyclone intensity by later
on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1930 UTC.
