Europe headed for a cooler spring?

[wesselsDC]

While many are enjoying the spring-like weather across much of Europe, how much longer will this pleasant weather last?

There are strong signals for the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) shifting eastward faster than expected towards the Atlantic by mid-month which could result in increasing cooler conditions for Europe across the second half of March, triggering a drop of the NAO indice.

Meanwhile, a collapsing polar vortex from a major SSW in the background also suggests colder risks through March if not beyond, while an AO seemingly locked in a +ve phase would limit the colder air.

If the latest ensemble trends were to be confirmed and should tighter coupling between the statosphere and troposphere occur, then we could see stronger forcing to a pattern shift in Europe later in March dashing the hopes of those wishing winter to be over!!

 

[romulus]

It does look that way. The 7-10 jet stream forecasts show it strengthening and becoming much more amplified sending depression south across the Mediterranean. I think with any potential cut-off lows, there could be some intense thunderstorms especially as solar radiation is increasing this time of year.

Thanks for the informative post sir.