European pattern shift

[danP]

There seems to be a bit more consistency in the forecast models regarding some changes to the stubborn pattern across Europe.

The pattern across Europe for the next fortnight will be upper level troughing (500hpa) / negative height anomalies across Northern Europe and 500hpa ridging / positive height anomalies across the south of Europe for the next two weeks.

This mostly zonal (which is our more typical) pattern should bring normal to above normal temperatures across much of Europe with normal to below normal temperatures mostly limited to Scandinavia and the Baltics due to low 500hpa heights the next two weeks, this could potentially see out the month.

It should bring some much needed relief for the Iberian peninsula and northwest Africa as a more settled regime comes around.

Just my thoughts everyone

 

[danP]

Will PV disruption still on the cards, are we going to see another cold lobe drop into northern and eastern Europe before winter calls it a day?

 

[oldseadog]

There does appear to be a ridge, bringing positive heights nudging into Iberia next week so we should be seeing a shift in the "storm track" to the north. The flooded folks of Spain and Portugal will be happy, but this will probably continue to bring bad weather to the UK and northwestern Europe.

 

[blizzard]

And so it begins, major warming as the azores high/ridge pushes into western Europe.