Potential cold end to January

[maritimesbob]

There's a lot of chatter (and a lot of crap) being posted on social media about a potential cold spell coming toward the latter half this month. This is mostly for northern, central and western Europe, but as I say, there is some extreme amounts of enthusiasm about this with the forecast model watchers!!! Then of course the media ramps it up to the next level!

The possible scenario, high pressure developing over Scandinavia (the famed Scandinavia high) and a slow moving 500mb low down toward Iberia, this could tap into the cold and frigid air-mass over Russia. I hate the phrase, "beast from the east", but yes possible that setup.

It's the coldest source during the winter months for most of Europe, tapping into the frigid air over Siberia/Russia.

But, a dose of reality is needed. We are talking past the 240hr forecast from some of the models where some of these scenarios could happen.

For now the Atlantic runs the show across western Europe, that's not changing for the next several days at least.

However, it's going to be interesting to watch and see how this all pans out. More Atlantic zonal murk, or a truly proper winter's end to January!

I'll post more info when it seems worth while mentioning.

Folks, feel free to add to this

 

[danP]

The models are flipping back and forth, but there's not much confidence to be had for a very cold end of January. There are temperatures below -35c over Belarus and -30c in Poland currently, certainly a lot of frigid air across eastern Europe should it eventually move into western Europe.

The ECM mean anomalies (2m temps) favour cold but not frigid temperatures for the end of the month across western Europe. Continuing the theme of a cold and wet winter, Spain and Portugal to remain below seasonal.

 

[maritimesbob]

The classic Scandinavian high setup that was being "warned off" on certain sites has all but dissipated. Can't wait to see how they explain where the "beast" or "wall of snow" has gone!!!!

Looks like a cooling trend starting next week, but I don't see any of that frigid air over Russia and eastern Europe making in-roads this way at the moment. Nothing really in the models and ensembles to suggest otherwise, just a messy output from most of the models toward the months end.

 

[maritimesbob]

Some very frigid temperatures across eastern Europe. Ukraine and Belarus not climbing over -15c all day, some locations in Belarus reported low maximums of -23c. Will have a look at the forecast models when the next runs come through.

 

[danP]

Here in the UK, slightly below average temperatures but the forecast of continental cold pushing over here has all but gone. The Atlantic is alive, in part thanks to all that cold air over Canada.

The usual hyped up social media sources will go quiet for a bit now!

 

[stormyskies]

I take it the much talked about big freeze from the east is not going to happen? It looked promising for a while, but we are looking at average temperarures for the next 7-10 days?

 

[maritimesbob]

Not so much, the true cold air remains over central and eastern Europe. There are hints in the longer range models of colder weather for northwestern Europe, but it's purely one model run. The modeled block over Scandinavia isn't positioned too well, and a flood of frigid air pouring out of North American gives a very active jetstream which is not favourable for a polar continental push in this direction.