Thoughts on winter, so far....

HrWirtz

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Hello,

While much of the recent attention has focused on North American Arctic outbreaks, the winter story across Europe has been far from boring.

In fact, parts of northeastern and eastern Europe are experiencing one of the coldest mid-winters of recent years, in sharp contrast to the milder conditions observed farther west.

January has an active North Atlantic storm track combined with a strong jet stream displaced southward. This configuration has repeatedly directed mild, moisture-rich air into western and southern Europe, bringing stormy conditions to Iberia and Mediterranean countries, including named systems such as Storm Harry and other Atlantic lows during January 2026.

At the same time, several of these systems have stalled, weakened, or curved northward, while an extensive and persistent Eurasian cold air mass has dominated northeastern parts of the continent. This has resulted in frequent snowfall and sustained cold conditions across countries such as Germany, Poland, and much of the Baltic locations, firmly remaining on the cold side of the pattern.

As a result, northeastern Europe has remained largely shielded from incoming Atlantic mild air and rainfall, maintaining colder and more wintry conditions.

Meanwhile, the southward-shifted jet stream continues to favor cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean, rather than a classic west-to-east zonal flow across the continent.

As winter enters its final phase, questions remain about whether colder conditions could expand westward into regions such as France or the UK, especially given recent PolarVortex disruption and Blocking patterns over the northern hemipshere.

One thing, however is clear, the cold air source remains strong, and winter conditions could persist across eastern Europe through the remainder of the season.
 
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Thanks for your thoughts Henri, great to have some more experience shared on here.

Care to be brave and share your thoughts on how this month transpires?
 
The NAO looks likely to remain in a negative phase, but possibly trending neutral. We could see subtle pattern changes by mid month, but I am skeptical about this.
 
Hi Henri

Medium range forecasts, particularly the ECMWF are suggesting the NAO could switch to a positive pattern by mid-month. Curious to know your thoughts on this, as this would be a major shift in the weather for western Europe particularly as it would likely send us back to the tradition west-east zonal pattern we usually get.

Sure fact it would offer some respite for Portugal and Spain from the storm train!
 
Potentially, but I see nothing that gives me confidence before mid-month. The much talked about stratospheric warming could well be weaker, consequently the PV breakdown could well be slowing or even pausing. The latest GEFS forecast does continue to hint at the NAO index heading to neutral which should in theory suggest a pattern shift, but probably after mid-February. In the meantime, I feel we are looking at more of the same........ some of the medium range guidance products however hint at an intrusion of colder air into northwest Europe for a time.
 
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