Western Med flash flooding potential

[maritimesbob]

An upper level low (storm Harry!) over the Iberian peninsula is forecast to bring some high rainfall totals to eastern Spain and the Balearics today and in the next couple of days. Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly wet, with convective activity expected causing flash flooding.

I think Tuesday/Wednesday, Malta and Sicily could bear the brunt of flash flooding as the low slowly drifts east into the central Mediterranean basin.

There's some ingredients coming together to bring exceptional rainfall rates from slow moving thunderstorms over this region. Also be some squally conditions look likely.

Could be a serious situation developing.

 

[maritimesbob]

The Italians have issued a red weather alert for Siciliy, Corsica and the southern peninsula starting later today and ending later Wednesday.

Some of the forecast models are suggesting 500mm+ in localised events. This could be historical and devastating rainfall amounts for the area.

 

[romulus]

I live in Sicily. I will report when I can. Meteo Aeuronautica has warned people to expect major flooding, upward of 400mm possible from slow moving thunderstorms and stratiform rains.

 

[wxmanjerry]

Cold core low moving over 16-19c sea surface temperatures, it's a classic setup for convection to form over the region along the south eastern/eastern portion of the low. Likely to be some big and slow moving rainfall totals.

 

[wxmanjerry]

Center of circulation of the surface low now clearly showing up on water vapour imagery, the upper low is somewhat parked over Algeria. There's already a plume of high topped convective clouds coming out of Tunisia, plenty of lightning being recorded from Tunis to Sardinia. Some isolated cells creeping toward Sicily.

 

[kelleher]

"Storm Harry poses an extremely dangerous flooding threat to the central Mediterranean. The most extreme rainfall is forecast over eastern Sicily, especially the Province of Catania, where more than 500 mm of rain may fall in less than 48 hours."

The ICON DWD model, eastern Sicily get hit hard.

 

[romulus]

The heavy storm cells have remained just off the coast of Tunisia overnight and this morning. I am expecting convective rain to push into Sicily later today.

 

[wxmanjerry]

A band of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move onto Sicily in the next couple of hours. The east to southeast winds have been a big story from this. I've seen reports of 118km/h gusts eastern Sicily, 109km/h in Malta.

The coastal city of Tunis (Tunisia of course!) received over 240mm of rain from slow moving storm cells. Next few hours is where Sicily will pick up some rapid rainfall totals.

It's impressive from a weather point of view, pretty much the whole of the western Mediterranean basin has been affected by this cold core low.

 

[maritimesbob]

Looks as though the upper level low slowly merges back into the mean flow by the end of the week, taking along the instability.

Worst rainfall totals in coastal Tunisia for 70+ years. A number of deaths reported

 

[romulus]

Giuliana in western Sicily reported a peak gust of 136km/h, highest gust on the island that I could find. I'm sure most have seen the storm surge that hit Lipari, and island to the north of Sicily.

Video shows storm surge flood restaurant in Sicily

Video shows storm surge flood restaurant in Sicily

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