La Nina to El Nino

[chaser_tyler]

The most important global change in 2026 will be the transition from La Niña to El Niño. Cool waters in the equatorial Pacific turn warm.

This will influence changing weather patterns worldwide, with those changes varying by region.

There is signs with high confidence that La Nina is breaking down and likely to collapse.

Possibly headed for an El Nino year.

The last El Niño was in 2023-24.

 

[danP]

NOAA’s ENSO analysis issued on January 9, predicts there is a 75% probability that ENSO-neutral conditions will emerge between January and March 2026. Some of the ensembles are close to half and half on a full switch to El Nino as we close in on next Autumn. Could make 2026/27 winter extremely interesting for Europe.

 

[oldseadog]

Don't think we are done with La Nina quite yet looking at the latest sst charts. I do think however ENSO is shifting to a neutral phase. Maybe the switch is delayed longer than projected by NOAA?

 

[maritimesbob]

Going to move this into a new forum called: Climate Earth as part of tidying up the board a bit.

 

[blizzard]

Is La Nina still coming to an end and changing to El Nino?