Leonardo

sumac

New member
Joined
Jan 15, 2025
Messages
18
Location
Albacete, Spain
Yet again, another deluge of rainfall to hit Portugal and Spain....


STORM LEONARDO - MAINLAND - RAIN, SNOW, WIND AND ROUGH SEAS

INITIALLY approach of a front to BAIXO ALENTEJO AND ALGARVE REGIONS, starting in the LATE AFTERNOON OF FEB 3RD

LEONARDO is the name given by IPMA - Azores to a low pressure system, which is expected to be centered at 49°N and 26°W at 12UTC on February 4th, approximately 1100 km north of the Azores archipelago, within a vast low-pressure area where several nuclei will evolve in the coming days.

The fronts associated with Storm LEONARDO will affect the weather in mainland Portugal FROM THE AFTERNOON OF FEB 3RD UNTIL FEB 7TH, with persistent and sometimes heavy precipitation, snowfall, strong winds and rough seas.

Mainland Portugal will feel the effects of the STORM LEONARDO, INITIALLY with the approach of a front to BAIXO ALENTEJO AND ALGARVE REGIONS, starting in the LATE AFTERNOON OF FEB 3RD, bringing persistent and sometimes heavy rainfall and wind gusts that could reach 75 km/h on the coast south of Cabo Mondego (Figueira da Foz) and 95 km/h in the highlands.

This front will gradually extend to the remaining regions of the mainland during Feb 4th, with the period of highest accumulated precipitation and strongest winds expected to be the night of Feb 4th to Feb 5th,
It gradually transitioning to showers, which may include hail and thunderstorms, with snowfall above 1500/1600 m, gradually dropping to 1200/1400 m, and with a temporary weakening of the wind between the afternoon of Feb 5th and the morning of Feb 6th.

The highest accumulated precipitation values are expected in the mountainous regions of the North and Center, potentially reaching 150 to 250 mm (l/m2) in some locations between Feb 3rd and 7th.

The sea will remain rough during this period, with waves from the west expected to reach a significant height of up to 6 m on the west coast, potentially reaching a maximum height of 11 m, temporarily decreasing between the afternoon of Feb 4th and the morning of Feb 5th.

Due to this situation, ORANGE and YELLOW level weather warnings have been issued, specifically for precipitation, snow, wind gusts, and rough seas.

Monitoring of these warnings is advised. This statement will be updated on February 3, 2026, at 19UTC.
 
Quite a concern, the ICON models showing QPF projections this week close to 500mm for Portugal. The southern regions of Iberia possibly seeing the worst with moderate to heavy stratiform rains, but local intensification from slow moving downpours likely.

Weds/Thurs shows some very intense precipitation across southern Portugal and southwest Spain. Sea conditions are forecast to be exceptional too for Portugal.

Could be a long week for many.
 
There's a bullseye over the Cadiz region, with local convergence effects coming into play. The 60hr accumulated precip (so that's up until Thursday evening) shows anything from 250mm to 400mm, depending on the model product. The UKMO has tended to forecast the highest totals. Northern Morocco doesn't escape either.
 

Attachments

  • UKMHDOPSP06_48_18.png
    UKMHDOPSP06_48_18.png
    59.6 KB · Views: 0
There's a huge source of moisture being tapped into, stretching all the way from Iberia to the Caribbean.
 

Attachments

  • goes19_ir_atl (1).gif
    goes19_ir_atl (1).gif
    4.8 MB · Views: 1
Heaviest of the precipitation has eased up.

Ubrique has reported 243mm
Benoacaz: 236mm
Grazalema: 232mm

Considerable flooding reporting across inland sw Spain as you would expect.

Not sure about Portugal figures as yet.

Wind gust of 105 kmh reported near Algeciras.
 
Tanger, Morroco reporting a gust of 123km/h. A number of other locations along northern most Morocco seeing +100km/h gusts earlier today.

Widespread 90-100km/h readings across Andalucia, Spain.

Not just a rain event.
 
There was a great example of orographic lift intensifying the rain around the Ronda region in southwest Spain earlier today. The band of precipitation sat there for hours dumping extreme rainfall rates of 100+mm per hour. The forecast modeling was very accurate for this event.
 

Attachments

  • spain radar grab.png
    spain radar grab.png
    797.7 KB · Views: 1
Last edited:
Grazalema has recorded 367mm, but I suspect that will be exceeded significantly. For location, Grazalema is located just west of Ronda in Malaga provice. It's a bad bad situation.
 
A number of personal weather stations are reporting upward of 500mm from Grazalema. Relief for the south, the rain focus has shifted to central and northern Iberia.
 
Some of the guidance is trying to bring a developing system to southern Iberia for his coming weekend.
 
Grazalema is living up to its reputation and wettest today, with 381.5mm so far to 4pm - which has broken its previous record for 24hr Rainfall of 337mm set in 1985.

Data via AEMET.
 
Back
Top