Polar vortex collapse

[wesselsDC]

Interesting article on the collapse of the polar vortex and the impacts in the mid latitudes. There is already a warming trend in the high arctic as the cold transits south.

Stratospheric warming developing over the Arctic forecast to weaken the polar vortex and influence February weather

Meteorological forecasts show a major sudden stratospheric warming event forming over the Arctic, likely to cause significant weakening of the polar vortex in early February 2026.

watchers.news

 

[britishwxwatcher]

Has it actually collapsed or just weakened, I am trying to learning about the weather and climatology.

 

[danP]

Yes, the polar vortex is forecast to split into two distinct cold pools. It has certainly disrupted and progged to collapse in February. Could bring some wild and contrasting weather into February for parts of Europe.

The attached image shows the expected split.

 

[wesselsDC]

You see why the cold has been displaced south. Notice how warm the arctic currently is in the anomaly 2m temp chart.

 

[HrWirtz]

I am leaning toward to the PV maintaining some shape and splitting is not being forecast in the long range atmospheric data at the 50hpa height from NCEP. A stretched PV with blocking over Greenland, likely having consequences for a shift with the cold core dropping over western north America and the east seeing milder intrusions. Europe sees milder conditions after mid month, particularly where the east has been so cold. There will be brief cold intrusions at times.

The models are not strongly showing a true Polar Vortex split. Social media will go into meltdown!!!

 

[wesselsDC]

Looks at the spike in warming at the 10hpa level

 

[wesselsDC]

Strange happenings with the polar vortex. Months of stretching out, then finally we get the collapse and split 14-10 days ago, now the PV has re-organised somewhat and become one. Latest 10hpa models forecast another split in the 10 to 15 day range.

Can't recall ever seeing such strange statospheric warming patterns.

One last split from the PV before winter calls it a day in the northern hemisphere?